Fragmented Party Offer, Vote Choice and Attitude Change: a Study on Right-wing Voters in the 2022 French Presidential Elections

Pre-Analysis Plan


Over the last two decades, party system fragmentation has dramatically increased in Western democracies (Chiaramonte & Emanuele, 2019; Emanuele & Chiaramonte, 2018, 2019). This change has not come alone. On the contrary, polarization and dissatisfaction with the democratic process are arguably on the rise too (Boxell et al., 2020; Martini & Quaranta, 2020). This project links both phenomena by analyzing the attitudinal correlates of new party voting and the effect of electoral results on attitude change when a new party enters. To do so, it leverages the unique context of the 2022 French presidential election, where a new far-right challenger (the novel candidate Éric Zemmour) is likely to obtain sizeable electoral support. The study consists of a two-wave panel survey among potential right-wing voters before and after the 1st round of the election. Its goal is two-fold. First, the pre-electoral wave aims to disentangle the correlates of new party voting when more than one viable options is available within the same ideological space. Second, the post-electoral wave allows us to analyse pre-post election attitude change. An additional survey experiment assesses the effect of electoral information frames on satisfaction with democracy (SWD), political trust and efficacy among new party supporters.

Pre Analysis Plan
Morgan Le Corre Juratic
Morgan Le Corre Juratic
PhD Researcher in Political Science

My research interests include party politics, political behaviour, political psychology and democracy.